With just eighty-three shopping days remaining until Christmas, the official retail footfall forecasts for the holiday season have been unveiled. Unfortunately, the outlook suggests a decrease in foot traffic across all UK retail destinations from October to December. This is attributed to the enduring challenges of cost-of-living constraints, rising interest rates, and inflation, as reported by MRI Software (formerly MRI Springboard).
Early signs of a challenging season have already emerged, as footfall across high streets, shopping centers, and out-of-town retail parks experienced a notable 3.2% month-to-month decline in September, marking the largest dip since January.
The forecast indicates that the downward trend will continue in October, with a slight decline of just 0.1%. Footfall is expected to remain relatively stable from October to November before showing a modest uptick of 5.1% from November to December. While this projected increase is the most significant of the year, it falls short of the 5.8% rise observed in 2022.
After the Black Friday shopping frenzy, the expected rise in footfall from November to December is poised to provide a substantial boost of 6.5% to retail parks and 10% to shopping centers. In contrast, high streets are expected to see a more modest increase of just 2%.
When analyzing the period from September to December, footfall in shopping centers is projected to average 0.3% below 2022 levels, compared to a more notable -1.7% decline in high streets.
The gap from the footfall levels recorded in 2019 is anticipated to marginally widen to -12.5% across all UK retail destinations, compared to -11% in August. While retail parks are expected to remain resilient, high streets and shopping centers are predicted to have a considerably wider gap compared to 2019 footfall levels. In August, high street footfall was 13.4% below the 2019 level, and shopping centers were 14.8% below 2019 levels. By December, this gap is anticipated to expand further to -15.5% in high streets and -17.7% in shopping centers.
These forecasts present a challenging scenario for retailers in the lead-up to the holiday season, as economic factors continue to influence consumer behavior and shopping patterns.
